College football Championship Game odds, picks against the spread: Georgia-Alabama, Washington-Orego
The Athletic has live coverage of the Pac-12 championship game featuring Oregon vs. Washington
Conference champions will be crowned this weekend with even more at stake for a select group of teams. Five undefeated teams remain, and four have their eyes on an even bigger prize after Championship Week – a spot in the College Football Playoff.
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Among the 10 conference championship games on tap, there’s none bigger than the Pac-12’s between Oregon and Washington on Friday night. The winner not only takes the conference crown (before heading off to the Big Ten) but more than likely claims a playoff spot. The undefeated Huskies are certainly in with a victory, while a one-loss, conference-champion Ducks team would also have a very strong case. Additionally, this game could determine the Heisman Trophy with quarterbacks Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. among the top contenders.
On Saturday, a familiar-looking SEC Championship Game pairing will again draw attention. Georgia and Alabama will face off for the third time in four years. The undefeated Bulldogs are well-positioned for a shot at a third straight national championship. However, the Crimson Tide are still in the conversation for a playoff spot thanks to their improbable, last-second Iron Bowl victory over Auburn this past Saturday.
In the ACC Championship Game, undefeated Florida State is in a good position, but the loss of dynamic quarterback Jordan Travis to injury cannot be overlooked. The Seminoles took care of business on the road against Florida this past Saturday but their 24-15 victory did not come easily. Louisville lost at home to Kentucky last week, but Jeff Brohm’s offense has been considerably more productive than Florida’s.
Texas is one team with its eyes on FSU. The Longhorns enter the Big 12 Championship Game on a six-game winning streak and with just one loss. Of course, Oklahoma State would like nothing more than to send UT off to the SEC with a big L.
Michigan is the biggest favorite of the weekend. Jim Harbaugh will be back on the sidelines as his team goes for a third-straight Big 10 crown and return trip to the CFP. All that’s needed is a win in Indianapolis over Iowa.
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In the Group of 5, Tulane and Liberty are the top contenders for the coveted New Year’s Six bowl berth. The Green Wave will host SMU in the AAC Championship Game while the Flames welcome New Mexico State for the Conference USA Championship Game. Liberty also is vying to stay undefeated.
Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the CFP rankings. All odds are from BetMGM.
New Mexico State at Liberty — Friday 7 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
For all the talk of the four undefeated teams at the top of the CFP rankings, Liberty is also undefeated. The Flames are the only undefeated Group of 5 team remaining and have a chance to be the G5 representative in the New Year’s Six bowls. The Flames are double-digit favorites against New Mexico State in the Conference USA title game.
This season has been in uncharted territory for both programs. The Aggies are 10-3 under second-year coach Jerry Kill and last reached double-digit wins in 1960. The 12-0 Flames joined the FBS level in 2018 and have never won more than 10 games in a season at any level.
These teams met in Week 2 with the Flames winning 33-17. Liberty racked up 526 yards of total offense, with 250 yards coming on the ground. New Mexico State led that game 17-13 in the second quarter, but gave up the final 20 points.
However, the Aggies are playing better than they were early in the season. The Aggies lost the season opener to UMass, which finished 3-9, and dropped a Week 4 game to Hawaii, which finished 5-8. Since that Hawaii loss, NM State has won eight in a row, including stomping Auburn 31-10 two weeks ago.
Washington vs. Oregon — 8 p.m. Friday on ABC
Back in Week 7, Oregon and Washington gave us one of the season’s best games. There’s a great chance the college football world is in for another treat this Friday when the two schools meet in the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas. Despite losing the matchup earlier this season, Oregon is favored by more than a touchdown.
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The biggest moment of Washington’s perfect season to this point is undoubtedly its come-from-behind win against Oregon back in mid-October, orchestrated by a game-winning drive from Heisman Trophy hopeful Michael Penix Jr. But Washington’s and Penix’s stock hasn’t really risen much since. In the six games following, the Huskies have just one double-digit win and have failed to score more than 24 points on three occasions. That has led to many questioning Washington’s status as a national title contender.
Meanwhile, it’s been nothing but up for the Ducks following their lone defeat of the season. Oregon has won the six games since, all by multiple scores and by an average of 26 points. Quarterback Bo Nix recently eclipsed Penix Jr. to become the nation’s leader in passing yards (3,906 to 3,899). Nix’s 37 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions have boosted his Heisman Trophy campaign. That award and a trip to the College Football Playoff could hinge on what type of performance Nix puts together in this game.
Oregon is 10-2 against the spread, while Washington is sitting at 5-6-1.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State — noon Saturday on ABC
The Lone Star State will host the biggest game for Texas in years as the Longhorns take on Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game with its College Football Playoff hopes on the line. Riding six consecutive wins, the Longhorns head to Arlington as two-touchdown favorites on BetMGM.
Texas last appeared in the Big 12 title game in 2018, and even longer since the Longhorns last won it in 2009. Texas also has a chance to win the Big 12 in its final season before the Longhorns leave for the SEC.
Regarding the CFP, a win on Saturday keeps Steve Sarkisian’s team in the running, while a loss leaves them on the outside looking in. Texas also needs some help this weekend but has to take out the Cowboys first.
The Oklahoma State offense has turned it up a notch over the second half of the season. The Cowboys failed to score 30 points in each of the season’s first five games, but scored more than 40 four times in the last six games, with a weird 45-3 loss at UCF in there. Running back Ollie Gordon II is the nation’s leading rusher at 1,580 yards.
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That offense will likely have to stay hot for the Cowboys to be in a good spot. Opponents have scored 30 or more points in five of the last seven games.
Texas’ offense has dealt with injuries this year with quarterback Quinn Ewers missing two games due to injury and running back Jonathon Brooks out for the season. Texas has still found success running the ball in the two games without Brooks. Freshman CJ Baxter rushed for 117 yards against Iowa State and sophomore Jaydon Blue ran for 121 yards last week against Texas Tech.
Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) — noon Saturday on ESPN
As coaching carousel rumors regularly name Toledo coach Jason Candle, his Rockets are preparing for the MAC title game against Miami (Ohio). The Rockets are touchdown favorites for this game at Detroit’s Ford Field.
At 11-1 and 8-0 in MAC play, Toledo can win 12 games for the first time since the Rockets had back-to-back 12-0 seasons in 1970 and 1971 (they were 11-0 in 1969). The Rockets also seek back-to-back MAC titles and the third in Candle’s seven-year tenure.
These teams met in October, and Toledo won 21-17 on the road. That was also the game Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert was lost for the season due to injury. The Redhawks have won every game since Aveon Smith stepped in as the starter. However, defense has been the main reason for Miami’s run. Smith has three total touchdowns in those four starts, while the defense has given up 41 points in four games. It’s no surprise that this game has the lowest total, non-Iowa game category, this weekend.
Miami last won the MAC in 2019.
Boise State at UNLV — 3 p.m. Saturday on FOX
Computer rankings dictated the matchup for the Mountain West Championship Game after UNLV, Boise State and San Jose State finished in a three-way tie atop the league standings. UNLV still got to host despite losing its regular season finale, but the Broncos are small favorites on the road.
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Barry Odom has guided UNLV to a surprise 9-3 record in his first year on the job. The Rebels already secured the program’s first bowl bid since 2013 and have a chance at 10 wins and a conference title both for the first time since 1984.
Reaching a conference title game is something new for UNLV, but Boise State is the most accomplished program in the Mountain West. The Broncos have won the conference four times since joining the league in 2011 and have made the conference title game six times in that span (3-3 record).
Boise is also very different to UNLV in its coaching status. The Broncos fired coach Andy Avalos after Boise was 5-5. Two wins later, interim coach Spencer Danielson has Boise playing for a conference championship.
Georgia vs. Alabama — 4 p.m. Saturday on CBS
For the third time in the past six SEC Championship Games, Nick Saban’s Alabama and Kirby Smart’s Georgia will square off against one another in a game with big-time implications for the College Football Playoff. On the heels of a remarkable win, the Crimson Tide enter this championship matchup as nearly a touchdown underdog.
Although Atlanta isn’t Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide might feel right at home. This 2021 rematch will mark Alabama’s 10th appearance in the SEC title game since 2008. Alabama has won its previous eight trips to Atlanta. And riding a 10-game winning streak into Saturday, Jalen Milroe and the Tide should have plenty of momentum and confidence. But they’ll need more than just confidence against undefeated Georgia.
Georgia has won 29 straight games and the last two national titles. Alabama was the last team to beat Georgia two years ago in the SEC title game.
Of course, the reigning back-to-back national champion Bulldogs are in great shape on both sides of the ball as they enter Saturday’s date with Alabama. And although there are a lot of new names on both sides from that 2021 SEC Championship Game loss, you can bet Smart will find a way to use that game as motivation.
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After some early season stutters, Georgia hit an extra gear and won six straight games, all against SEC opposition, by multiple scores. Last week, with tight end Brock Bowers not playing, the Bulldogs only beat Georgia Tech by eight points in a game that was closer than most expected. Alabama also appeared to be playing better in the past month but was 4th-and-31 conversion away from losing at six-win Auburn last week.
SMU at Tulane — 4 p.m. Saturday on ABC
Tulane had a memorable 2022 season that culminated in a Cotton Bowl victory against USC. The Green Wave have a chance to replicate that success. A win against SMU in the AAC title game would likely put Tulane back on that stage. The Green Wave are favored by less than a touchdown at home.
At 11-1 and ranked the highest among Group of 5 teams entering this weekend, Tulane would likely secure a second-straight New Year’s Six bowl berth with a victory. SMU, already in its first conference title game since 2010, is trying to secure its first conference championship since 1984 in its last year before it leaves for the ACC.
The Green Wave ran the table in AAC play after losing to Ole Miss in Week 2 in a game that was tied entering the fourth quarter despite quarterback Michael Pratt being out due to injury. Pratt has thrown 20 or more touchdown passes in his four years as a starter. This season Pratt racked up 2,168 yards and 25 total touchdowns in 10 games.
Pratt will go up against an SMU defense allowing 17.7 points per game, 13th-best in the nation. SMU has also scored more than 30 points 10 times this season and averaged nearly 46 points per game in conference play, but will be without quarterback Preston Stone after he got hurt last week against Navy.
Appalachian State at Troy — 4 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
Two of the most successful Sun Belt programs in recent years will meet in the title game at Troy on Saturday. The Trojans are favored by about a touchdown against Appalachian State.
Troy won the Sun Belt last year, with its only loss in conference play coming against App State. The Mountaineers have won the league four times since joining in 2014 and have now made four of the six Sun Belt title games.
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Both teams come in riding winning streaks. Troy’s only two losses are to teams that have been in the rankings most of the year in James Madison and Kansas State. The Trojans have won nine in a row since falling to JMU.
App State was 3-4 before winning its final five games to get to this game. James Madison finished with the best record in the Sun Belt East, but was ineligible for this game as it is the Dukes’ second year at the FBS level. App State did hand James Madison its only loss of the season, a 26-23 triumph on the road with ESPN’s “College Gameday” in town.
The Mountaineers have won the last five games in this series, and only one of those was decided by single digits.
Michigan vs. Iowa — 8 p.m. Saturday on FOX
A 2021 Big Ten Championship rematch is set for Indianapolis when Michigan and Iowa go toe to toe. The Wolverines won that 2021 championship game and are expected to do so again in 2023. Michigan is a better than 20-point favorite on BetMGM.
The two defenses in this game are statistically as dominant as any in college football. The Wolverines surrender only 10.6 points per game to their opponents, fewest in the country, and are one of two teams allowing fewer than 250 yards of total offense on average. Iowa’s numbers aren’t far behind at 12.2 points and 279.9 total yards allowed per game. Yet, the parallels cease on defense.
Iowa’s offense is still the butt of many jokes after averaging 18 points per game this season. The Hawkeyes have struggled, especially in the passing game at 123.4 yards per game. Still, when you have a defense as stout as the Hawkeyes’, you can get away with an impotent offense.
The Wolverines are also run-heavy. The difference is their ground attack has produced 33 rushing touchdowns, including 22 by senior running back Blake Corum. They also offer at least a decent passing game to help balance things out and keep opposing defenses honest. Quarterback JJ McCarthy hasn’t passed for more than 200 yards in the last three games, but Michigan is still the highest-scoring team in the Big Ten (37.6 points per game).
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Jim Harbaugh’s return from suspension could boost Michigan, seeking its third-straight Big Ten title.
Florida State vs. Louisville — 8 p.m. Saturday on ABC
With an undefeated record, Florida State will enter Saturday’s ACC Championship Game against Louisville, looking to maintain its spot in the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles enter as a small favorite.
Louisville’s appearance in Saturday’s championship game will be its first as a member of the ACC. Despite coming into this contest on the heels of a non-conference loss to Kentucky, the Cardinals are enjoying their first double-digit-win season since the Teddy Bridgewater era in 2013. Credit first-year head coach Jeff Brohm for the quick turnaround.
Louisville has a better shot than expected a few weeks ago at its upset bid, going up against a Jordan Travis-less Seminoles offense. FSU will likely lean even more on its strong defensive unit as the offense enters its second full week without its QB1. The Seminoles trailed 12-0 at Florida last week before Tate Rodemaker and the FSU offense started to get things in gear. Running back Trey Benson found the end zone three times in that comeback win. The production has to come from somewhere if FSU wants back in the CFP for the first time since Jameis Winston led the offense.
Picks records
Last week | Overall | |
---|---|---|
Austin Mock | 5-1-1 | 55-35-3 |
Dan Santaromita | 1-5-1 | 46-44-3 |
Ari Wasserman | 3-3-3 | 43-47-3 |
Chris Vannini | 4-3 | 39-52-2 |
(Photo of Kendall Milton: Jeffrey Vest / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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